[{"home_team":"Nice","away_team":"Lens","date":"2026-05-02 19:05:00","league":"Ligue 1","prob_home":0.157,"prob_draw":0.279,"prob_away":0.564,"odds_home":3.9,"odds_draw":4.1,"odds_away":1.74,"odds_1x":1.39,"odds_x2":1.38,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":64.3,"model_prob":0.564,"implied_prob":0.535,"edge":0.029,"odds":1.74,"kelly_stake":0.04,"composite":0.363,"bet_tier":"B","kelly_multiplier":0.75,"adjusted_kelly":0.03,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":137,"away_matches":136,"verdict":"BET","comment":"Modest edge (3% vs implied); rule system moderately agrees (64/100); short odds (1.74) — small margin, low risk."},{"home_team":"Real Betis","away_team":"Oviedo","date":"2026-05-03 16:30:00","league":"La Liga","prob_home":0.621,"prob_draw":0.138,"prob_away":0.241,"odds_home":1.54,"odds_draw":4.1,"odds_away":5.2,"odds_1x":6,"odds_x2":1.01,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":50,"model_prob":0.621,"implied_prob":0.598,"edge":0.023,"odds":1.54,"kelly_stake":0.042,"composite":0.311,"bet_tier":"C","kelly_multiplier":0.5,"adjusted_kelly":0.021,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":147,"away_matches":33,"verdict":"CONSIDER","comment":"Modest edge (2% vs implied); rule system weakly agrees (50/100); short odds (1.54) — small margin, low risk."},{"home_team":"Brentford","away_team":"West Ham","date":"2026-05-02 14:00:00","league":"Premier League","prob_home":0.618,"prob_draw":0.214,"prob_away":0.168,"odds_home":1.9,"odds_draw":3.8,"odds_away":3.4,"odds_1x":1.32,"odds_x2":1.47,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":50,"model_prob":0.618,"implied_prob":0.486,"edge":0.133,"odds":1.9,"kelly_stake":0.147,"composite":0.309,"bet_tier":"C","kelly_multiplier":0.5,"adjusted_kelly":0.074,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":148,"away_matches":148,"verdict":"CONSIDER","comment":"Very strong edge (13% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (27% gap); rule system weakly agrees (50/100)."},{"home_team":"Lyon","away_team":"Rennes","date":"2026-05-03 18:45:00","league":"Ligue 1","prob_home":0.188,"prob_draw":0.211,"prob_away":0.6,"odds_home":2.1,"odds_draw":3.7,"odds_away":2.95,"odds_1x":6,"odds_x2":1.01,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":50,"model_prob":0.6,"implied_prob":0.312,"edge":0.288,"odds":2.95,"kelly_stake":0.148,"composite":0.3,"bet_tier":"C","kelly_multiplier":0.5,"adjusted_kelly":0.074,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":137,"away_matches":137,"verdict":"CONSIDER","comment":"Very strong edge (29% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (92% gap); rule system weakly agrees (50/100)."},{"home_team":"Strasbourg","away_team":"Toulouse","date":"2026-05-03 15:15:00","league":"Ligue 1","prob_home":0.199,"prob_draw":0.207,"prob_away":0.594,"odds_home":2.4,"odds_draw":3.55,"odds_away":2.6,"odds_1x":1.44,"odds_x2":1.31,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":50,"model_prob":0.594,"implied_prob":0.355,"edge":0.239,"odds":2.6,"kelly_stake":0.149,"composite":0.297,"bet_tier":"C","kelly_multiplier":0.5,"adjusted_kelly":0.074,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":136,"away_matches":137,"verdict":"CONSIDER","comment":"Very strong edge (24% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (67% gap); rule system weakly agrees (50/100)."},{"home_team":"Lommel United","away_team":"Beerschot VA","date":"2026-05-02 18:00:00","league":"Jupiler Pro League","prob_home":0.421,"prob_draw":0.26,"prob_away":0.319,"odds_home":2.45,"odds_draw":3.25,"odds_away":2.15,"odds_1x":1.66,"odds_x2":1.25,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":50,"model_prob":0.421,"implied_prob":0.346,"edge":0.075,"odds":2.45,"kelly_stake":0.052,"composite":0.21,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.013,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":3,"away_matches":37,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Solid edge (8% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (22% gap); rule system weakly agrees (50/100)."},{"home_team":"Valencia","away_team":"Atletico Madrid","date":"2026-05-02 14:15:00","league":"La Liga","prob_home":0.449,"prob_draw":0.141,"prob_away":0.41,"odds_home":1.74,"odds_draw":3.85,"odds_away":3.9,"odds_1x":1.09,"odds_x2":2.5,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":50,"model_prob":0.41,"implied_prob":0.235,"edge":0.175,"odds":3.9,"kelly_stake":0.06,"composite":0.205,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.015,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":147,"away_matches":147,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Very strong edge (18% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (74% gap); rule system weakly agrees (50/100); high odds (3.9) amplify upside but increase variance."},{"home_team":"Alaves","away_team":"Athletic Club","date":"2026-05-02 16:30:00","league":"La Liga","prob_home":0.467,"prob_draw":0.153,"prob_away":0.381,"odds_home":2.55,"odds_draw":3.4,"odds_away":2.5,"odds_1x":1.47,"odds_x2":1.31,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.467,"implied_prob":0.361,"edge":0.106,"odds":2.55,"kelly_stake":0.068,"composite":0.2,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.017,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":109,"away_matches":147,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Very strong edge (11% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (29% gap); rule system weakly agrees (43/100)."},{"home_team":"Celta Vigo","away_team":"Elche","date":"2026-05-03 12:00:00","league":"La Liga","prob_home":0.441,"prob_draw":0.167,"prob_away":0.393,"odds_home":1.72,"odds_draw":3.85,"odds_away":4.1,"odds_1x":1.54,"odds_x2":1.31,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":50,"model_prob":0.393,"implied_prob":0.225,"edge":0.168,"odds":4.1,"kelly_stake":0.054,"composite":0.196,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.014,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":147,"away_matches":71,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Very strong edge (17% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (75% gap); rule system weakly agrees (50/100); high odds (4.1) amplify upside but increase variance."},{"home_team":"Lille","away_team":"Le Havre","date":"2026-05-03 13:00:00","league":"Ligue 1","prob_home":0.367,"prob_draw":0.183,"prob_away":0.451,"odds_home":1.38,"odds_draw":4.7,"odds_away":7.25,"odds_1x":1.12,"odds_x2":2.05,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.451,"implied_prob":0.128,"edge":0.322,"odds":7.25,"kelly_stake":0.052,"composite":0.193,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.013,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":137,"away_matches":99,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Very strong edge (32% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (252% gap); rule system weakly agrees (43/100); high odds (7.25) amplify upside but increase variance."},{"home_team":"Auxerre","away_team":"Angers","date":"2026-05-03 15:15:00","league":"Ligue 1","prob_home":0.27,"prob_draw":0.207,"prob_away":0.523,"odds_home":1.7,"odds_draw":3.55,"odds_away":4.7,"odds_1x":1.21,"odds_x2":1.62,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":35.7,"model_prob":0.523,"implied_prob":0.197,"edge":0.327,"odds":4.7,"kelly_stake":0.088,"composite":0.187,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.022,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":103,"away_matches":103,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Very strong edge (33% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (165% gap); rule system weakly agrees (36/100); high odds (4.7) amplify upside but increase variance."},{"home_team":"Guingamp","away_team":"Bastia","date":"2026-05-02 18:00:00","league":"Ligue 2","prob_home":0.51,"prob_draw":0.295,"prob_away":0.195,"odds_home":2.2,"odds_draw":3.45,"odds_away":2.85,"odds_1x":1.25,"odds_x2":1.64,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":35.7,"model_prob":0.51,"implied_prob":0.415,"edge":0.095,"odds":2.2,"kelly_stake":0.079,"composite":0.182,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.02,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":143,"away_matches":141,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Solid edge (10% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (23% gap); rule system weakly agrees (36/100)."},{"home_team":"Dunkerque","away_team":"Grenoble","date":"2026-05-02 18:00:00","league":"Ligue 2","prob_home":0.393,"prob_draw":0.245,"prob_away":0.362,"odds_home":1.92,"odds_draw":3.3,"odds_away":3.65,"odds_1x":3.55,"odds_x2":1.03,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":50,"model_prob":0.362,"implied_prob":0.25,"edge":0.113,"odds":3.65,"kelly_stake":0.043,"composite":0.181,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.011,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":106,"away_matches":142,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Very strong edge (11% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (45% gap); rule system weakly agrees (50/100); high odds (3.65) amplify upside but increase variance."},{"home_team":"Fortuna Sittard","away_team":"Feyenoord","date":"2026-05-03 12:30:00","league":"Eredivisie","prob_home":0.421,"prob_draw":0.265,"prob_away":0.314,"odds_home":4.4,"odds_draw":4,"odds_away":1.43,"odds_1x":1.6,"odds_x2":1.31,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.421,"implied_prob":0.193,"edge":0.228,"odds":4.4,"kelly_stake":0.067,"composite":0.18,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.017,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":133,"away_matches":133,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Very strong edge (23% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (118% gap); rule system weakly agrees (43/100); high odds (4.4) amplify upside but increase variance."},{"home_team":"Portsmouth","away_team":"Birmingham","date":"2026-05-02 11:30:00","league":"Championship","prob_home":0.42,"prob_draw":0.257,"prob_away":0.323,"odds_home":2.2,"odds_draw":3.35,"odds_away":2.5,"odds_1x":1.42,"odds_x2":1.36,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.42,"implied_prob":0.394,"edge":0.025,"odds":2.2,"kelly_stake":0.021,"composite":0.18,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.005,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":91,"away_matches":137,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Modest edge (2% vs implied); rule system weakly agrees (43/100)."},{"home_team":"Udinese","away_team":"Torino","date":"2026-05-02 13:00:00","league":"Serie A","prob_home":0.318,"prob_draw":0.281,"prob_away":0.401,"odds_home":2.2,"odds_draw":3.2,"odds_away":3.1,"odds_1x":1.22,"odds_x2":1.6,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.401,"implied_prob":0.296,"edge":0.105,"odds":3.1,"kelly_stake":0.05,"composite":0.172,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.012,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":148,"away_matches":148,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Very strong edge (10% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (35% gap); rule system weakly agrees (43/100)."},{"home_team":"Cercle Brugge","away_team":"Zulte Waregem","date":"2026-05-01 18:45:00","league":"Jupiler Pro League","prob_home":0.363,"prob_draw":0.246,"prob_away":0.391,"odds_home":1.76,"odds_draw":3.45,"odds_away":3.1,"odds_1x":1.24,"odds_x2":1.68,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.391,"implied_prob":0.273,"edge":0.117,"odds":3.1,"kelly_stake":0.056,"composite":0.167,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.014,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":152,"away_matches":68,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Very strong edge (12% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (43% gap); rule system weakly agrees (43/100)."},{"home_team":"Newcastle","away_team":"Brighton","date":"2026-05-02 14:00:00","league":"Premier League","prob_home":0.46,"prob_draw":0.254,"prob_away":0.286,"odds_home":2.4,"odds_draw":3.6,"odds_away":2.55,"odds_1x":1.15,"odds_x2":2.05,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":35.7,"model_prob":0.46,"implied_prob":0.383,"edge":0.077,"odds":2.4,"kelly_stake":0.055,"composite":0.164,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.014,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":148,"away_matches":148,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Solid edge (8% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (20% gap); rule system weakly agrees (36/100)."},{"home_team":"Aston Villa","away_team":"Tottenham","date":"2026-05-03 18:00:00","league":"Premier League","prob_home":0.46,"prob_draw":0.327,"prob_away":0.213,"odds_home":2.1,"odds_draw":3.6,"odds_away":3,"odds_1x":6,"odds_x2":1.01,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":35.7,"model_prob":0.46,"implied_prob":0.438,"edge":0.022,"odds":2.1,"kelly_stake":0.02,"composite":0.164,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.005,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":148,"away_matches":148,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Modest edge (2% vs implied); rule system weakly agrees (36/100)."},{"home_team":"Getafe","away_team":"Rayo Vallecano","date":"2026-05-03 14:15:00","league":"La Liga","prob_home":0.445,"prob_draw":0.271,"prob_away":0.285,"odds_home":1.94,"odds_draw":3.3,"odds_away":3.7,"odds_1x":1.24,"odds_x2":1.6,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":57.1,"model_prob":0.285,"implied_prob":0.248,"edge":0.036,"odds":3.7,"kelly_stake":0.013,"composite":0.163,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.003,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":147,"away_matches":147,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Modest edge (4% vs implied); bookmaker underestimates outcome (15% gap); rule system moderately agrees (57/100); high odds (3.7) amplify upside but increase variance."},{"home_team":"Girona","away_team":"Mallorca","date":"2026-05-01 19:00:00","league":"La Liga","prob_home":0.363,"prob_draw":0.26,"prob_away":0.378,"odds_home":1.96,"odds_draw":3.4,"odds_away":3.55,"odds_1x":1.23,"odds_x2":1.64,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.378,"implied_prob":0.259,"edge":0.118,"odds":3.55,"kelly_stake":0.046,"composite":0.162,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.012,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":147,"away_matches":147,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Very strong edge (12% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (46% gap); rule system weakly agrees (43/100); high odds (3.55) amplify upside but increase variance."},{"home_team":"PAU","away_team":"Nancy","date":"2026-05-02 18:00:00","league":"Ligue 2","prob_home":0.363,"prob_draw":0.268,"prob_away":0.369,"odds_home":2.2,"odds_draw":3.6,"odds_away":2.7,"odds_1x":1.64,"odds_x2":1.27,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.369,"implied_prob":0.336,"edge":0.033,"odds":2.7,"kelly_stake":0.019,"composite":0.158,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.005,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":142,"away_matches":32,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Modest edge (3% vs implied); rule system weakly agrees (43/100)."},{"home_team":"Sparta Rotterdam","away_team":"GO Ahead Eagles","date":"2026-05-03 14:45:00","league":"Eredivisie","prob_home":0.352,"prob_draw":0.281,"prob_away":0.367,"odds_home":1.84,"odds_draw":3.45,"odds_away":2.9,"odds_1x":3.05,"odds_x2":1.03,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.367,"implied_prob":0.293,"edge":0.074,"odds":2.9,"kelly_stake":0.039,"composite":0.157,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.01,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":137,"away_matches":134,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Solid edge (7% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (25% gap); rule system weakly agrees (43/100)."},{"home_team":"Pisa","away_team":"Lecce","date":"2026-05-01 18:45:00","league":"Serie A","prob_home":0.34,"prob_draw":0.373,"prob_away":0.287,"odds_home":3,"odds_draw":3,"odds_away":2.35,"odds_1x":1.4,"odds_x2":1.38,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":42.2,"model_prob":0.373,"implied_prob":0.305,"edge":0.067,"odds":3,"kelly_stake":0.034,"composite":0.157,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.008,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":34,"away_matches":148,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Solid edge (7% vs implied); bookmaker significantly underestimates outcome (22% gap); rule system weakly agrees (42/100)."},{"home_team":"Le Mans","away_team":"Reims","date":"2026-05-02 18:00:00","league":"Ligue 2","prob_home":0.379,"prob_draw":0.262,"prob_away":0.36,"odds_home":2.35,"odds_draw":3.3,"odds_away":2.7,"odds_1x":1.22,"odds_x2":1.7,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.36,"implied_prob":0.337,"edge":0.023,"odds":2.7,"kelly_stake":0.013,"composite":0.154,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.003,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":32,"away_matches":32,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Modest edge (2% vs implied); rule system weakly agrees (43/100)."},{"home_team":"Bayer Leverkusen","away_team":"RB Leipzig","date":"2026-05-02 16:30:00","league":"Bundesliga","prob_home":0.354,"prob_draw":0.291,"prob_away":0.355,"odds_home":2.05,"odds_draw":4,"odds_away":2.8,"odds_1x":1.48,"odds_x2":1.39,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.355,"implied_prob":0.326,"edge":0.029,"odds":2.8,"kelly_stake":0.016,"composite":0.152,"bet_tier":"D","kelly_multiplier":0.25,"adjusted_kelly":0.004,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":133,"away_matches":133,"verdict":"SMALL","comment":"Modest edge (3% vs implied); rule system weakly agrees (43/100)."},{"home_team":"KV Mechelen","away_team":"Gent","date":"2026-05-03 11:30:00","league":"Jupiler Pro League","prob_home":0.397,"prob_draw":0.247,"prob_away":0.356,"odds_home":2.35,"odds_draw":3.2,"odds_away":2.25,"odds_1x":1.09,"odds_x2":2.3,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":35.7,"model_prob":0.397,"implied_prob":0.36,"edge":0.037,"odds":2.35,"kelly_stake":0.027,"composite":0.142,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":149,"away_matches":156,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (4%) but composite score too low (0.14) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Como","away_team":"Napoli","date":"2026-05-02 16:00:00","league":"Serie A","prob_home":0.336,"prob_draw":0.17,"prob_away":0.494,"odds_home":2.15,"odds_draw":3.25,"odds_away":3.1,"odds_1x":2.05,"odds_x2":1.13,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":28.6,"model_prob":0.494,"implied_prob":0.294,"edge":0.2,"odds":3.1,"kelly_stake":0.095,"composite":0.141,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":72,"away_matches":148,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (20%) but composite score too low (0.14) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Swansea","away_team":"Charlton","date":"2026-05-02 11:30:00","league":"Championship","prob_home":0.409,"prob_draw":0.264,"prob_away":0.327,"odds_home":1.68,"odds_draw":3.4,"odds_away":3.85,"odds_1x":1.72,"odds_x2":1.21,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.327,"implied_prob":0.226,"edge":0.101,"odds":3.85,"kelly_stake":0.035,"composite":0.14,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":183,"away_matches":45,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (10%) but composite score too low (0.14) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"PEC Zwolle","away_team":"Heracles","date":"2026-05-03 12:30:00","league":"Eredivisie","prob_home":0.391,"prob_draw":0.286,"prob_away":0.322,"odds_home":1.37,"odds_draw":4.3,"odds_away":4.7,"odds_1x":1.32,"odds_x2":1.48,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.322,"implied_prob":0.181,"edge":0.141,"odds":4.7,"kelly_stake":0.038,"composite":0.138,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":99,"away_matches":99,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (14%) but composite score too low (0.14) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Rodez","away_team":"Saint Etienne","date":"2026-05-02 18:00:00","league":"Ligue 2","prob_home":0.379,"prob_draw":0.312,"prob_away":0.309,"odds_home":3.15,"odds_draw":3.6,"odds_away":2,"odds_1x":1.18,"odds_x2":1.84,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":35.7,"model_prob":0.379,"implied_prob":0.29,"edge":0.089,"odds":3.15,"kelly_stake":0.041,"composite":0.135,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":142,"away_matches":109,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (9%) but composite score too low (0.14) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Hull City","away_team":"Norwich","date":"2026-05-02 11:30:00","league":"Championship","prob_home":0.436,"prob_draw":0.249,"prob_away":0.315,"odds_home":1.74,"odds_draw":3.65,"odds_away":3.35,"odds_1x":1.46,"odds_x2":1.37,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.315,"implied_prob":0.26,"edge":0.055,"odds":3.35,"kelly_stake":0.023,"composite":0.135,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":183,"away_matches":185,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (6%) but composite score too low (0.14) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Inter","away_team":"Parma","date":"2026-05-03 18:45:00","league":"Serie A","prob_home":0.365,"prob_draw":0.261,"prob_away":0.374,"odds_home":1.2,"odds_draw":6.5,"odds_away":10,"odds_1x":6,"odds_x2":1.01,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":35.7,"model_prob":0.374,"implied_prob":0.092,"edge":0.282,"odds":10,"kelly_stake":0.031,"composite":0.133,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":148,"away_matches":72,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (28%) but composite score too low (0.13) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Bournemouth","away_team":"Crystal Palace","date":"2026-05-03 13:00:00","league":"Premier League","prob_home":0.384,"prob_draw":0.353,"prob_away":0.263,"odds_home":1.58,"odds_draw":4.2,"odds_away":4.5,"odds_1x":1.72,"odds_x2":1.2,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":50,"model_prob":0.263,"implied_prob":0.203,"edge":0.06,"odds":4.5,"kelly_stake":0.017,"composite":0.132,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":148,"away_matches":147,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (6%) but composite score too low (0.13) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Anderlecht","away_team":"Club Brugge KV","date":"2026-05-03 16:30:00","league":"Jupiler Pro League","prob_home":0.448,"prob_draw":0.301,"prob_away":0.25,"odds_home":3.6,"odds_draw":3.7,"odds_away":1.58,"odds_1x":6,"odds_x2":1.01,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":28.6,"model_prob":0.448,"implied_prob":0.235,"edge":0.213,"odds":3.6,"kelly_stake":0.082,"composite":0.128,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":148,"away_matches":155,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (21%) but composite score too low (0.13) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Derby","away_team":"Sheffield Utd","date":"2026-05-02 11:30:00","league":"Championship","prob_home":0.402,"prob_draw":0.299,"prob_away":0.299,"odds_home":1.64,"odds_draw":3.7,"odds_away":3.7,"odds_1x":1.8,"odds_x2":1.19,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.299,"implied_prob":0.235,"edge":0.064,"odds":3.7,"kelly_stake":0.024,"composite":0.128,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":91,"away_matches":140,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (6%) but composite score too low (0.13) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Manchester United","away_team":"Liverpool","date":"2026-05-03 14:30:00","league":"Premier 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11:30:00","league":"Championship","prob_home":0.431,"prob_draw":0.256,"prob_away":0.313,"odds_home":2.8,"odds_draw":3.6,"odds_away":1.96,"odds_1x":1.38,"odds_x2":1.38,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":28.6,"model_prob":0.431,"implied_prob":0.312,"edge":0.119,"odds":2.8,"kelly_stake":0.066,"composite":0.123,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":183,"away_matches":94,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (12%) but composite score too low (0.12) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Espanyol","away_team":"Real Madrid","date":"2026-05-03 19:00:00","league":"La 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19:00:00","league":"Eredivisie","prob_home":0.379,"prob_draw":0.346,"prob_away":0.275,"odds_home":1.39,"odds_draw":4.3,"odds_away":4.4,"odds_1x":1.31,"odds_x2":1.56,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":42.9,"model_prob":0.275,"implied_prob":0.193,"edge":0.082,"odds":4.4,"kelly_stake":0.024,"composite":0.118,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":134,"away_matches":36,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (8%) but composite score too low (0.12) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Millwall","away_team":"Oxford United","date":"2026-05-02 11:30:00","league":"Championship","prob_home":0.31,"prob_draw":0.283,"prob_away":0.407,"odds_home":1.28,"odds_draw":4.7,"odds_away":6.5,"odds_1x":1.09,"odds_x2":2.55,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":28.6,"model_prob":0.407,"implied_prob":0.134,"edge":0.273,"odds":6.5,"kelly_stake":0.05,"composite":0.116,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":183,"away_matches":91,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (27%) but composite score too low (0.12) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Leeds","away_team":"Burnley","date":"2026-05-01 19:00:00","league":"Premier League","prob_home":0.433,"prob_draw":0.241,"prob_away":0.326,"odds_home":1.39,"odds_draw":4.8,"odds_away":6.25,"odds_1x":1.4,"odds_x2":1.39,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":35.7,"model_prob":0.326,"implied_prob":0.147,"edge":0.179,"odds":6.25,"kelly_stake":0.034,"composite":0.116,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":72,"away_matches":72,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (18%) but composite score too low (0.12) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Sheffield Wednesday","away_team":"West Brom","date":"2026-05-02 11:30:00","league":"Championship","prob_home":0.394,"prob_draw":0.285,"prob_away":0.322,"odds_home":4.8,"odds_draw":4.2,"odds_away":1.43,"odds_1x":1.29,"odds_x2":1.58,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":28.6,"model_prob":0.394,"implied_prob":0.182,"edge":0.212,"odds":4.8,"kelly_stake":0.056,"composite":0.112,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":137,"away_matches":185,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (21%) but composite score too low (0.11) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Charleroi","away_team":"Genk","date":"2026-05-02 16:15:00","league":"Jupiler Pro 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2","prob_home":0.283,"prob_draw":0.259,"prob_away":0.458,"odds_home":1.54,"odds_draw":4.2,"odds_away":4.7,"odds_1x":1.34,"odds_x2":1.38,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":21.4,"model_prob":0.458,"implied_prob":0.193,"edge":0.265,"odds":4.7,"kelly_stake":0.072,"composite":0.098,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":104,"away_matches":142,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (26%) but composite score too low (0.10) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Bournemouth","away_team":"Crystal Palace","date":"2026-05-03 13:00:00","league":"Premier 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11:30:00","league":"Championship","prob_home":0.402,"prob_draw":0.299,"prob_away":0.299,"odds_home":1.64,"odds_draw":3.7,"odds_away":3.7,"odds_1x":1.8,"odds_x2":1.19,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":30.9,"model_prob":0.299,"implied_prob":0.235,"edge":0.064,"odds":3.7,"kelly_stake":0.024,"composite":0.093,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":91,"away_matches":140,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (6%) but composite score too low (0.09) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Blackburn","away_team":"Leicester","date":"2026-05-02 11:30:00","league":"Championship","prob_home":0.363,"prob_draw":0.351,"prob_away":0.286,"odds_home":2,"odds_draw":3.35,"odds_away":2.85,"odds_1x":1.09,"odds_x2":2.5,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":26.3,"model_prob":0.351,"implied_prob":0.26,"edge":0.091,"odds":3.35,"kelly_stake":0.039,"composite":0.092,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":183,"away_matches":91,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (9%) but composite score too low (0.09) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Watford","away_team":"Coventry","date":"2026-05-02 11:30:00","league":"Championship","prob_home":0.424,"prob_draw":0.263,"prob_away":0.313,"odds_home":3,"odds_draw":3.6,"odds_away":1.88,"odds_1x":1.23,"odds_x2":1.56,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":21.4,"model_prob":0.424,"implied_prob":0.292,"edge":0.133,"odds":3,"kelly_stake":0.066,"composite":0.091,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":183,"away_matches":186,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (13%) but composite score too low (0.09) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Wolves","away_team":"Sunderland","date":"2026-05-02 14:00:00","league":"Premier League","prob_home":0.38,"prob_draw":0.334,"prob_away":0.287,"odds_home":3,"odds_draw":3.35,"odds_away":2.2,"odds_1x":1.15,"odds_x2":1.94,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":27.1,"model_prob":0.334,"implied_prob":0.275,"edge":0.059,"odds":3.35,"kelly_stake":0.025,"composite":0.091,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":148,"away_matches":34,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (6%) but composite score too low (0.09) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Juventus","away_team":"Hellas Verona","date":"2026-05-03 16:00:00","league":"Serie A","prob_home":0.358,"prob_draw":0.413,"prob_away":0.229,"odds_home":1.19,"odds_draw":6.75,"odds_away":10.5,"odds_1x":6,"odds_x2":1.01,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":21.9,"model_prob":0.413,"implied_prob":0.137,"edge":0.276,"odds":6.75,"kelly_stake":0.048,"composite":0.09,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":148,"away_matches":149,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (28%) but composite score too low (0.09) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Boulogne","away_team":"Annecy","date":"2026-05-02 18:00:00","league":"Ligue 2","prob_home":0.4,"prob_draw":0.277,"prob_away":0.324,"odds_home":3.15,"odds_draw":3.15,"odds_away":2.15,"odds_1x":1.01,"odds_x2":5.6,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":21.4,"model_prob":0.4,"implied_prob":0.289,"edge":0.111,"odds":3.15,"kelly_stake":0.052,"composite":0.086,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":34,"away_matches":142,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (11%) but composite score too low (0.09) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Millwall","away_team":"Oxford United","date":"2026-05-02 11:30:00","league":"Championship","prob_home":0.31,"prob_draw":0.283,"prob_away":0.407,"odds_home":1.28,"odds_draw":4.7,"odds_away":6.5,"odds_1x":1.09,"odds_x2":2.55,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":30.1,"model_prob":0.283,"implied_prob":0.185,"edge":0.097,"odds":4.7,"kelly_stake":0.026,"composite":0.085,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":183,"away_matches":91,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (10%) but composite score too low (0.09) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Osasuna","away_team":"Barcelona","date":"2026-05-02 19:00:00","league":"La Liga","prob_home":0.391,"prob_draw":0.271,"prob_away":0.338,"odds_home":4.2,"odds_draw":3.75,"odds_away":1.72,"odds_1x":1.88,"odds_x2":1.19,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":21.4,"model_prob":0.391,"implied_prob":0.219,"edge":0.172,"odds":4.2,"kelly_stake":0.054,"composite":0.084,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":147,"away_matches":147,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (17%) but composite score too low (0.08) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Famalicao","away_team":"Benfica","date":"2026-05-02 17:00:00","league":"Primeira Liga","prob_home":0.431,"prob_draw":0.3,"prob_away":0.268,"odds_home":4.5,"odds_draw":3.85,"odds_away":1.49,"odds_1x":1.24,"odds_x2":1.62,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":27.2,"model_prob":0.3,"implied_prob":0.225,"edge":0.075,"odds":3.85,"kelly_stake":0.026,"composite":0.082,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":133,"away_matches":133,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (8%) but composite score too low (0.08) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Guingamp","away_team":"Bastia","date":"2026-05-02 18:00:00","league":"Ligue 2","prob_home":0.51,"prob_draw":0.295,"prob_away":0.195,"odds_home":2.2,"odds_draw":3.45,"odds_away":2.85,"odds_1x":1.25,"odds_x2":1.64,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":27.9,"model_prob":0.295,"implied_prob":0.265,"edge":0.03,"odds":3.45,"kelly_stake":0.012,"composite":0.082,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":143,"away_matches":141,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (3%) but composite score too low (0.08) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Wolves","away_team":"Sunderland","date":"2026-05-02 14:00:00","league":"Premier League","prob_home":0.38,"prob_draw":0.334,"prob_away":0.287,"odds_home":3,"odds_draw":3.35,"odds_away":2.2,"odds_1x":1.15,"odds_x2":1.94,"outcome":"home","confidence_rate":21.4,"model_prob":0.38,"implied_prob":0.307,"edge":0.073,"odds":3,"kelly_stake":0.036,"composite":0.081,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":148,"away_matches":34,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (7%) but composite score too low (0.08) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Nice","away_team":"Lens","date":"2026-05-02 19:05:00","league":"Ligue 1","prob_home":0.157,"prob_draw":0.279,"prob_away":0.564,"odds_home":3.9,"odds_draw":4.1,"odds_away":1.74,"odds_1x":1.39,"odds_x2":1.38,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":29,"model_prob":0.279,"implied_prob":0.227,"edge":0.053,"odds":4.1,"kelly_stake":0.017,"composite":0.081,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":137,"away_matches":136,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (5%) but composite score too low (0.08) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Ipswich","away_team":"QPR","date":"2026-05-02 11:30:00","league":"Championship","prob_home":0.43,"prob_draw":0.289,"prob_away":0.281,"odds_home":1.25,"odds_draw":5,"odds_away":7,"odds_1x":1.04,"odds_x2":2.95,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":28.6,"model_prob":0.281,"implied_prob":0.125,"edge":0.156,"odds":7,"kelly_stake":0.026,"composite":0.08,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":91,"away_matches":183,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (16%) but composite score too low (0.08) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Rodez","away_team":"Saint Etienne","date":"2026-05-02 18:00:00","league":"Ligue 2","prob_home":0.379,"prob_draw":0.312,"prob_away":0.309,"odds_home":3.15,"odds_draw":3.6,"odds_away":2,"odds_1x":1.18,"odds_x2":1.84,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":25.6,"model_prob":0.312,"implied_prob":0.254,"edge":0.058,"odds":3.6,"kelly_stake":0.022,"composite":0.08,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":142,"away_matches":109,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (6%) but composite score too low (0.08) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Sheffield Wednesday","away_team":"West Brom","date":"2026-05-02 11:30:00","league":"Championship","prob_home":0.394,"prob_draw":0.285,"prob_away":0.322,"odds_home":4.8,"odds_draw":4.2,"odds_away":1.43,"odds_1x":1.29,"odds_x2":1.58,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":27.5,"model_prob":0.285,"implied_prob":0.208,"edge":0.077,"odds":4.2,"kelly_stake":0.024,"composite":0.078,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":137,"away_matches":185,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (8%) but composite score too low (0.08) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Montpellier","away_team":"Clermont Foot","date":"2026-05-02 18:00:00","league":"Ligue 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19:00:00","league":"Eredivisie","prob_home":0.379,"prob_draw":0.346,"prob_away":0.275,"odds_home":1.39,"odds_draw":4.3,"odds_away":4.4,"odds_1x":1.31,"odds_x2":1.56,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":21.6,"model_prob":0.346,"implied_prob":0.197,"edge":0.149,"odds":4.3,"kelly_stake":0.045,"composite":0.075,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":134,"away_matches":36,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (15%) but composite score too low (0.07) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Atalanta","away_team":"Genoa","date":"2026-05-02 18:45:00","league":"Serie 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11:30:00","league":"Championship","prob_home":0.43,"prob_draw":0.289,"prob_away":0.281,"odds_home":1.25,"odds_draw":5,"odds_away":7,"odds_1x":1.04,"odds_x2":2.95,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":24.9,"model_prob":0.289,"implied_prob":0.175,"edge":0.114,"odds":5,"kelly_stake":0.029,"composite":0.072,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":91,"away_matches":183,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (11%) but composite score too low (0.07) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Real Betis","away_team":"Oviedo","date":"2026-05-03 16:30:00","league":"La 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14:45:00","league":"Eredivisie","prob_home":0.352,"prob_draw":0.281,"prob_away":0.367,"odds_home":1.84,"odds_draw":3.45,"odds_away":2.9,"odds_1x":3.05,"odds_x2":1.03,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":24.4,"model_prob":0.281,"implied_prob":0.246,"edge":0.035,"odds":3.45,"kelly_stake":0.014,"composite":0.069,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":137,"away_matches":134,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (4%) but composite score too low (0.07) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"AZ Alkmaar","away_team":"Twente","date":"2026-05-03 14:45:00","league":"Eredivisie","prob_home":0.317,"prob_draw":0.3,"prob_away":0.384,"odds_home":2.35,"odds_draw":3.5,"odds_away":2.15,"odds_1x":1.23,"odds_x2":1.64,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":22.7,"model_prob":0.3,"implied_prob":0.243,"edge":0.057,"odds":3.5,"kelly_stake":0.023,"composite":0.068,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":135,"away_matches":138,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (6%) but composite score too low (0.07) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Manchester United","away_team":"Liverpool","date":"2026-05-03 14:30:00","league":"Premier 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18:00:00","league":"Eredivisie","prob_home":0.339,"prob_draw":0.323,"prob_away":0.338,"odds_home":2.25,"odds_draw":3.75,"odds_away":2.25,"odds_1x":1.12,"odds_x2":2.25,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":20.3,"model_prob":0.323,"implied_prob":0.231,"edge":0.093,"odds":3.75,"kelly_stake":0.034,"composite":0.066,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":133,"away_matches":133,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (9%) but composite score too low (0.07) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Aston Villa","away_team":"Tottenham","date":"2026-05-03 18:00:00","league":"Premier 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16:45:00","league":"Eredivisie","prob_home":0.423,"prob_draw":0.281,"prob_away":0.296,"odds_home":1.54,"odds_draw":3.75,"odds_away":3.85,"odds_1x":1.1,"odds_x2":2.4,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":21.4,"model_prob":0.296,"implied_prob":0.221,"edge":0.075,"odds":3.85,"kelly_stake":0.026,"composite":0.063,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":99,"away_matches":103,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (8%) but composite score too low (0.06) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Utrecht","away_team":"NAC Breda","date":"2026-05-02 14:30:00","league":"Eredivisie","prob_home":0.315,"prob_draw":0.3,"prob_away":0.385,"odds_home":1.64,"odds_draw":3.65,"odds_away":3.65,"odds_1x":1.07,"odds_x2":2.55,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":20.3,"model_prob":0.3,"implied_prob":0.237,"edge":0.064,"odds":3.65,"kelly_stake":0.024,"composite":0.061,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":135,"away_matches":75,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (6%) but composite score too low (0.06) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Bayer Leverkusen","away_team":"RB Leipzig","date":"2026-05-02 16:30:00","league":"Bundesliga","prob_home":0.354,"prob_draw":0.291,"prob_away":0.355,"odds_home":2.05,"odds_draw":4,"odds_away":2.8,"odds_1x":1.48,"odds_x2":1.39,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":20.2,"model_prob":0.291,"implied_prob":0.228,"edge":0.062,"odds":4,"kelly_stake":0.021,"composite":0.059,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":133,"away_matches":133,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (6%) but composite score too low (0.06) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Leeds","away_team":"Burnley","date":"2026-05-01 19:00:00","league":"Premier League","prob_home":0.433,"prob_draw":0.241,"prob_away":0.326,"odds_home":1.39,"odds_draw":4.8,"odds_away":6.25,"odds_1x":1.4,"odds_x2":1.39,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":24.6,"model_prob":0.241,"implied_prob":0.192,"edge":0.05,"odds":4.8,"kelly_stake":0.013,"composite":0.059,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":72,"away_matches":72,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (5%) but composite score too low (0.06) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"PEC Zwolle","away_team":"Heracles","date":"2026-05-03 12:30:00","league":"Eredivisie","prob_home":0.391,"prob_draw":0.286,"prob_away":0.322,"odds_home":1.37,"odds_draw":4.3,"odds_away":4.7,"odds_1x":1.32,"odds_x2":1.48,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":20.3,"model_prob":0.286,"implied_prob":0.198,"edge":0.089,"odds":4.3,"kelly_stake":0.027,"composite":0.058,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":99,"away_matches":99,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (9%) but composite score too low (0.06) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Nantes","away_team":"Marseille","date":"2026-05-02 13:00:00","league":"Ligue 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14:30:00","league":"Eredivisie","prob_home":0.315,"prob_draw":0.3,"prob_away":0.385,"odds_home":1.64,"odds_draw":3.65,"odds_away":3.65,"odds_1x":1.07,"odds_x2":2.55,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":14.3,"model_prob":0.385,"implied_prob":0.237,"edge":0.148,"odds":3.65,"kelly_stake":0.056,"composite":0.055,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":135,"away_matches":75,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (15%) but composite score too low (0.06) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Villarreal","away_team":"Levante","date":"2026-05-02 12:00:00","league":"La 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16:45:00","league":"Eredivisie","prob_home":0.423,"prob_draw":0.281,"prob_away":0.296,"odds_home":1.54,"odds_draw":3.75,"odds_away":3.85,"odds_1x":1.1,"odds_x2":2.4,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":18.1,"model_prob":0.281,"implied_prob":0.227,"edge":0.054,"odds":3.75,"kelly_stake":0.02,"composite":0.051,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":99,"away_matches":103,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (5%) but composite score too low (0.05) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Inter","away_team":"Parma","date":"2026-05-03 18:45:00","league":"Serie 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11:30:00","league":"Championship","prob_home":0.449,"prob_draw":0.245,"prob_away":0.306,"odds_home":1.84,"odds_draw":3.5,"odds_away":3.15,"odds_1x":1.78,"odds_x2":1.23,"outcome":"away","confidence_rate":14.3,"model_prob":0.306,"implied_prob":0.277,"edge":0.029,"odds":3.15,"kelly_stake":0.014,"composite":0.044,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":185,"away_matches":183,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (3%) but composite score too low (0.04) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Arsenal","away_team":"Fulham","date":"2026-05-02 16:30:00","league":"Premier 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12:30:00","league":"Eredivisie","prob_home":0.421,"prob_draw":0.265,"prob_away":0.314,"odds_home":4.4,"odds_draw":4,"odds_away":1.43,"odds_1x":1.6,"odds_x2":1.31,"outcome":"draw","confidence_rate":15,"model_prob":0.265,"implied_prob":0.212,"edge":0.052,"odds":4,"kelly_stake":0.017,"composite":0.04,"bet_tier":"E","kelly_multiplier":0,"adjusted_kelly":0,"data_quality":"ok","home_matches":133,"away_matches":133,"verdict":"SKIP","comment":"Edge detected (5%) but composite score too low (0.04) — not staked (adjust_kelly = 0)."},{"home_team":"Arsenal","away_team":"Fulham","date":"2026-05-02 16:30:00","league":"Premier 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